July 13, 2015
With protracted negotiations still going on in Brussels, I would like to provide my readers with an opinion I have expressed in February this year, in an email exchange with my younger Blogactiv colleague Dimitri Rapidis from Athens.
I still consider today that the total absence of a Plan B has severely weakened the position of the Greek team during the failed debt renegotiation. I also happen to believe that the European conservatives pushing Greece towards exit are totally wrong in their conviction that this would discipline the rest of the EU members for good. A Greek exit will only precipitate the political crisis that has been brewing against them for years. It will in fact represent the beginning of the end.
|from:||Florian Pantazi <email@example.com>|
|to:||Dim Rapidis <firstname.lastname@example.org>|
|date:||Wed, Feb 11, 2015 at 7:57 PM|
|subject:||Re: Your posts|
Thank you for your reply, Dim. I still feel that Greece is losing precious time in trying to cajole the rest of the EU into agreeing they have botched it with austerity measures. Hollande has already tried the “New Deal” approach, from a much larger economic and political base, and… failed. What the new Greek government could understand is that during the 1930s the international economic environment was entirely different, there were no BRICS around to speak of. In my view, Greece doesn’t stand a chance to convince autistic Germany and EU conservatives to change course. Realism and not idealism is what’s needed in dealing with the issue of Greek debt.
According to my analysis, Germans are more worried about contagion from Greece to Spain and Italy and possibly beyond, than of a possible Grexit. This is the reason why it makes sense to repudiate the debt, revert to the drachma and chart a totally independent course for Greece from now on. After six years of agony, I do not think that Greeks can continue to take a long period of protracted negotiations leading to minor debt reductions and, quite frankly, I don’t see why they would need to do that anyway. Seizing this opportunity is in my view more productive – in the long run – than trying to play games with a bunch of inflexible politicians and/or EU institutions.